Overall Predictions For Election 2004

When I got home a few minutes ago, I discovered, much to my chagrin, that I had not made a summary of my predictions. Well, here goes:

PRESIDENTIAL RACE
John Kerry-330 Electoral Votes, 51.9% in popular vote
Switching from Bush to Kerry: Arkansas, New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, Virginia

George W. Bush-208 Electoral Votes, 46.3% in popular vote
Switching from Gore 2000 to Bush: None

John F. Kerry will be declared the next President of the United States sometime around or slightly after midnight.

US SENATE
Going into election: 51 Republicans, 48 Democrats, 1 Independent (who votes with the Democrats on organizational issues)

Democrats Take: Oklahoma, Alaska, Colorado, Illinois, Kentucky
Democrats Hold: North Carolina, Florida, possibly Louisiana (depending on runoff), possibly South Carolina (waiting on more info)

GOP Takes: Georgia, , South Dakotapossibly South Carolina, possibly Louisiana (depending on runoff)

Overall: The Democrats pick up three, depending on whether they hold both Louisiana and South Carolina. If both go Republican, then a +1 for the Democrats. If SC goes GOP on E-Night, but LA goes to a runoff, the Senate will depend on Louisiana for its structure in 2005. In the event of LA going GOP, Vice-President Edwards would break the tie. Either way, Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid is most likely.

US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Original Balance: 227 Republicans, 205 Democrats, 1 Indy, 2 Vacant

Democrats Pick Up: CO-3, CO-6, CO-7, CT-2, CT-4, IL-8, IN-8, possibly LA-3 (depending on runoff), MN-6, MO-9, NE-1, NJ-7, NY-27, NC-11, OH-3, OH-14, PA-6, PA-8, VA-2, WA-8
+19 (or +20, depending on LA-3)

GOP Picks Up: possibly LA-7 (depending on runoff), TX-10, TX-11, TX-19, TX-24
+4 (or +5, depending on LA-7)

Overall: The story of the night, apart from the Democratic victory for Kerry, will be the House. Even in the best case GOP scenario, the Democrats would have 219 seats in the next Congress, and at worst for the GOP 221. The House is going to be extremely close, and if some of the close Democratic pickups I have projected go Republican, the GOP could squeak out control of the House.

GUBERNATORIAL RACES
Starting Point: 28 Republicans, 22 Democrats

Democrats Pickup: MT, NH
Democrats Hold: WA, WV, NC, DE, MO

GOP Picks Up: IN
GOP Holds: VT, UT, ND

Overall: Democrats gain +1 in Governorships, to make it 27-23 GOP. 2006 will decide, with 36 Governorships up, who will be in charge of this majority in 2007.

OVERALL PICTURE
November 2nd, 2004 will be remembered as a great day in the history of the Democratic Party. Fueled in part by the coatails of Senator John Kerry, who ousted President George W. Bush, the Democratic Party took control of both Houses of Congress.